住友金属鉱山(5713)思わず売却 ― 2007年11月06日

昨年の2/28に購入した住友金属鉱山を思わず売却してしまった。

コード 名称 　　　　　　　購入日 　　　購入価格　売価(11/5)　損益率
5713 住友金属鉱山　2006/02/28　　　　\1,590　　　\2,445　　△54%

下げ基調にあるニッケル相場の反発、M&A相場による含み資産の評価を
夢見て、4,000円～5,000円の大相場を期待して、じっと我慢して保有し
続けていたが、とうとう耐えられなくなった。

・サブプライム問題の広がり
　米シティ、10月の1ヶ月でさらに追加損失の見込み、CEO辞任、
　投資判断の引き下げ
・金相場800ドル突破も株価は反応せず
　産金株として是川銀蔵が大相場を演出した往年の面影はなし
・銅価の下落
　　　　　　　　2007年度　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　LME
　　単位　　当初予想　上期実績　下期予想　 10/26 　　11/2
　 　$/T　　　6,000　　　7,677　　　7,000　　　7825.00　 7525.50

　在庫も増加、米国の住宅投資低迷でさらに在庫が増加する見通し

・ニッケル在庫の増加
　ニッケル価格は持ち直しているがLME在庫はここ5年間でも高水準、
　ステンレスの市中在庫も増加傾向で反転の気配なし
・中国の北京オリンピック後の景気後退懸念
　銅、ニッケルなどの非鉄使用量の減少による価格低下も懸念される

ただし、非鉄価格が現在の水準で安定すれば、EPSは230円前後、
PER15倍で、3,450円。
この銘柄には愛着があるのでニッケルと銅の在庫動向を見た上で、
再投資のタイミングを窺おうと思う。

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